On this pageFunnel Forecast Win / loss Top deals

Specification / Pipeline 360

The front of the funnel — specification pipeline by stage, forecast vs plan, win/loss, and the projects that decide the quarter.

The Stark Group · FY26 (modeled)

Luxury to-the-trade — designers & architects only (no retail)

670 employees · 12+ US sites · 8 countries

▲ Executive read· the answer, then the moves

Q3 FY26 commit £38m sits £6m below the £44m plan — £14m of best-case upside must convert to make the number. Coverage is 5.6x on £248m of pipeline; the call is winnable but only if the at-risk upside is forced to close.

3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · all on or above target

Do now — ranked by urgency

1
Convert £14m of best-case upside to close the £6m plan gapAct now
Why it matters
Commit £38m is £6m short of the £44m Q3 FY26 plan — the gap that decides whether the quarter lands.
What's driving it
Q3 FY26 commit £38m vs £44m plan
£14m best-case upside above commit
FYI
Pipeline £248m (5.6x coverage), £106m weighted
Owner: CRO
Open forecast →
2
Attack the top loss reason: Price (£16m lost)Watch
Why it matters
£-win-rate is 73% (£93m won vs £34m lost); Price is the single largest leak at £16m.
What's driving it
£-win-rate 73%
Top loss Price £16m across 62 deals
FYI
Top win driver: Design / craft quality & heritage £44m
Tighten discount discipline via Quote / Order 360
Discount discipline →
3
£2m repeat-designer revenue at risk — Q3 FY26Watch
Why it matters
Each retention point on the repeat base ≈ repeat-designer revenue lost.
What's driving it
re-order window Q3 FY26
Signal: Re-order risk
FYI
Of £16m due for re-order in Q3 FY26, £2m is lapse-flagged.
Owner: VP Sales (Drew Olson)
Act →▤ open the at-risk accounts
4
£3m repeat-designer revenue at risk — Q4 FY26Watch
Why it matters
Each retention point on the repeat base ≈ repeat-designer revenue lost.
What's driving it
re-order window Q4 FY26
Signal: Re-order risk
FYI
Of £19m due for re-order in Q4 FY26, £3m is lapse-flagged.
Owner: VP Sales (Drew Olson)
Act →▤ open the at-risk accounts

📈 Showroom & to-the-tradeStep 1 of 6 · showroom funnel & forecastDesigner Account 360 ▶All journeys

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↗ Where this connects — act / drill across

👥Customer 360· whose accounts the deals sit in 🧾Quote / Specification 360· the quotes behind the funnel 🛰Market Intel & M&A· signals driving the pipeline 💰Finance 360· forecast vs plan

● LiveBuilt forVP Sales (To-the-Trade)· coverage & forecast callSales Ops· stage velocity & hygieneCEO / Family· will we make the quarter

Stark is pursuing £248m of specified projects across the funnel (£106m weighted). This view answers sales' two questions — will we make the quarter (forecast vs plan) and why we win or lose — and points at the projects that move the number.

Data backing: pipeline_stage · forecast · winloss · opportunity · kpi

£248m

Qualified pipeline

1270 opps

£106m

Weighted pipeline

value × win-prob

73%

£-Win-rate

won ÷ (won+lost) £

£184m

Orders booked

order-to-ship 1.11×

£64m

Backlog (WIP)

ordered, not shipped

Coverage

Pipeline by stage

Value and win-probability rise toward the close — weighted value is what to bank on.

Specify · 640 opps · 20% win£88m

Develop · 360 opps · 40% win£70m

Proposal · 190 opps · 60% win£56m

Order · 80 opps · 80% win£34m

Dark fill = win-probability within each stage's value. Weighted pipeline totals £106m.

The forecast call

Q3 FY26 — £38m commit vs £44m plan

Commit, best-case and closed-to-date against the plan line.

Q1 FY26 · actualclosed £42m vs plan £40m

Q2 FY26 · actualclosed £41m vs plan £42m

Q3 FY26 · currentcommit £38m · best £52m

Q4 FY26 · forecastcommit £28m · best £56m

Q3 FY26: commit £38m is £6m below the £44m plan; £14m of best-case upside must convert to close the gap. Black line = plan.

Why we win & lose

£-win-rate 73% · £93m won vs £34m lost

Clone the win reasons into low-win families; attack the top loss reason first.

Why we win

Design / craft quality & heritage£44m · 168

Designer relationship / showroom service£31m · 121

Breadth across houses (one source)£18m · 74

Why we lose

Price£16m · 62

Lead time too long£11m · 38

Range / colourway gap£7m · 21

Read it: design / craft quality & heritage wins the most (£44m); Price is the top loss (£16m) — tighten discount discipline (see Quote / Order 360) before chasing new demand.

Move the number

Named deals in play

Signal-sourced deals convert higher — prioritize them.

Opportunity	Account	Houses	Value	Stage	Win %	Source
Peter Marino — flagship retail + residences (custom rugs + fabric)	Peter Marino Architect (representative)	Custom Rugs + Fabrics	£4.2m	Proposal	60%	signal
Four Seasons — property refresh (carpet + custom rugs)	Four Seasons (representative)	Carpet & Custom Rugs	£3.6m	Qualify	45%	signal
Aman — new resort openings (broadloom + hides)	Aman Resorts (representative)	Carpet & Broadloom + Hides	£2.4m	Proposal	50%	outbound
Superyacht fit-out — bespoke silk rugs + leather	Yacht & aviation outfitters (representative)	Custom Rugs + Hides	£1.9m	Develop	48%	signal
Studio Sofield — hospitality fabric package	Studio Sofield (representative)	Fabrics & Textiles	£1.5m	Qualify	40%	outbound
Kelly Wearstler — cross-house attach (fabric + wallcovering)	Kelly Wearstler Studio (representative)	Fabrics + Wallcoverings	£1.2m	Develop	55%	signal